Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 27.947918 29.734849 31.645882 33.853750 36.349766 39.102909 42.395910
2025-12-14 24.950946 27.297878 29.940087 33.174223 37.082786 41.732431 47.810024
2025-12-21 23.053082 25.674642 28.726279 32.610586 37.532425 43.728104 52.421768
2025-12-28 22.258371 25.188057 28.703502 33.345403 39.504528 47.717510 60.160401
2026-01-04 21.491603 24.633049 28.496630 33.756794 41.019353 51.219731 67.849851
2026-01-11 20.830851 24.138202 28.293490 34.106314 42.428490 54.707660 76.260349
2026-01-18 20.103109 23.497482 27.835404 34.039367 43.195353 57.294678 83.773862
2026-01-25 19.268948 22.664799 27.059146 33.448073 43.097091 58.460952 88.962287
2026-02-01 18.528814 21.913866 26.342315 32.875267 42.948826 59.491280 94.134827
2026-02-08 17.854644 21.216703 25.656982 32.291710 42.713417 60.316080 99.098474
2026-02-15 17.325800 20.688948 25.174507 31.967210 42.848968 61.799121 106.018898
2026-02-22 17.165109 20.647390 25.361103 32.646780 44.681253 66.692715 123.337371
2026-03-01 16.724664 20.216590 24.990892 32.474350 45.103012 69.034015 135.450187
2026-03-08 16.172700 19.612185 24.345764 31.834557 44.655164 69.548019 142.505586
2026-03-15 15.692408 19.089827 23.795877 31.310050 44.361112 70.339869 151.048135
2026-03-22 15.587323 19.085871 23.997574 31.993358 46.315743 76.430401 183.865427
2026-03-29 15.405708 18.964579 24.016737 32.375551 47.748588 81.687526 220.534766
2026-04-05 15.219575 18.828315 24.004433 32.700061 49.103074 87.118780 268.296717
2026-04-12 14.947172 18.557439 23.774662 32.637919 49.675892 90.667901 313.439908
2026-04-19 14.570434 18.123684 23.278825 32.088766 49.196791 91.210589 338.109252
2026-04-26 14.216261 17.713544 22.805896 31.556267 48.709249 91.655791 364.609323
2026-05-03 13.876071 17.315459 22.339297 31.013249 48.157566 91.828069 390.737912
2026-05-10 13.608029 17.016668 22.017756 30.711062 48.097715 93.506439 442.516390